NCAA Tournament March Madness

#46 San Diego St

Bubble Watch | Bracketology

Chat with the Bracketologist | How does this work?


Projection: likely out

San Diego State’s résumé is shaped by a rugged defensive identity that has masked an inconsistent offense, and that contrast explains where they stand. They collected a resume-boosting neutral win over Oregon but were badly damaged by a lopsided neutral loss at Michigan and an inexplicable setback to Troy, with a neutral loss at Baylor adding more weight to the negatives. The Mountain West schedule hands them clear paths to repair the resume with attainable home dates against Nevada, Fresno State, UNLV and New Mexico paired with important road tests at San Jose State, Nevada, Grand Canyon and Wyoming that will show whether the defense can compensate away from home. A neutral meeting with Arizona and a trip to Utah State represent the clearest opportunities for a signature win while a stretch of home games should allow the offense to find a rhythm so the defense can do its work. From a committee standpoint the Oregon victory and the defensive profile are persuasive but the Michigan blowout and the Troy loss are blemishes that need to be erased with quality road or neutral wins before the résumé feels truly safe.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/4Long Beach St265W77-45
11/9Idaho St158W73-57
11/18Troy148L108-107
11/24(N)Michigan1L94-54
11/25(N)Oregon91W97-80
11/26(N)Baylor33L91-81
12/3Utah Valley85W77-66
12/10Lamar22795%
12/17Air Force33099%
12/20(N)Arizona619%
12/30@San Jose St18481%
1/3Boise St4460%
1/6@Nevada8756%
1/10Fresno St17391%
1/14@Wyoming9759%
1/17New Mexico7872%
1/21@Grand Canyon10260%
1/24@UNLV13270%
1/28Colorado St5967%
1/31@Utah St4134%
2/3Wyoming9779%
2/7@Air Force33095%
2/14Nevada8776%
2/17Grand Canyon10279%
2/21@Colorado St5945%
2/25Utah St4156%
2/28@New Mexico7851%
3/3@Boise St4438%
3/6UNLV13286%