NCAA Tournament March Madness

#51 San Diego St

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Projection: likely out

San Diego State’s résumé reads like a team with a stout defensive identity and a signature neutral-site win over Oregon but one that has been undercut by a string of damaging neutral losses to Michigan, Arizona and Baylor and an inexplicable home setback to Troy, which neutralizes much of the value from routine nonconference victories over Long Beach State, Idaho State and Lamar. The Aztecs have shown they can stop opponents but they have not yet proven it away from home against quality opposition, so the committee will treat the Oregon win as meaningful while treating the lopsided neutral defeats and the Troy loss as red flags. The remaining slate presents clear repair opportunities: road tests at Nevada and Utah State and a trip to San Jose State are ticket windows to show résumé growth, while home dates with Boise State and Colorado State and the easier home assignments against Fresno State and UNLV offer chances to build momentum before conference tournament play. Overall, the profile hinges on whether San Diego State can convert those upcoming road chances into resume-making results rather than padding its ledger against low-major opponents.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/4Long Beach St257W77-45
11/9Idaho St167W73-57
11/18Troy138L108-107
11/24(N)Michigan1L94-54
11/25(N)Oregon72W97-80
11/26(N)Baylor30L91-81
12/3Utah Valley81W77-66
12/10Lamar237W89-71
12/17Air Force324W81-58
12/20(N)Arizona2L68-45
12/30@San Jose St20082%
1/3Boise St5261%
1/6@Nevada6647%
1/10Fresno St16990%
1/14@Wyoming9758%
1/17New Mexico7070%
1/21@Grand Canyon9556%
1/24@UNLV14171%
1/28Colorado St8975%
1/31@Utah St3129%
2/3Wyoming9778%
2/7@Air Force32495%
2/14Nevada6669%
2/17Grand Canyon9576%
2/21@Colorado St8954%
2/25Utah St3150%
2/28@New Mexico7048%
3/3@Boise St5239%
3/6UNLV14187%